A 3/3 ITM Day
June 1, 2013
I started watched the EUR/USD from around 1AM-5AM EST and found nothing worth trading. The trade I really wanted was a put option at the touch of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level on the 2:45 candle. Unfortunately, it came 3/10th’s of a pip short of touching the Fib level, so I never took it. But it was a trade that would have won had it made it up to the price I had wanted.
I had also considered a trade on the open of the 4:10 candle (two to the left of the green candle with the long upper wick). Price had been randomly congesting in that area and although it was certainly a case of weak resistance, the price action (pinbar followed by a doji) seemed to suggest some type of imminent reversal. Ultimately I decided not to take the trade since it seemed too much of a lower-probability set-up, as there was no other factor working in my favor.
Before that, at 3:25 I was eyeing the pivot point (purple line – 1.30138) as a potential call option trade. I was considering taking the trade if there was a touch of the level and a close back above it – followed by a touch of 1.30138 on the following candle. But that never materialized either. Price subsequently touched the 1.30138 level on the 4:30 candle, but momentum was significantly downward. Moreover, there was a minor potential resistance zone created by the near touch of the pivot an hour earlier, which would have made it even more of a risky area to trade back into. Price simply looked like it wanted to head lower, which it did eventually, but I had no real idea of when.
I stopped watching the EUR/USD shortly thereafter, but sometimes I have issues taking my eyes off the market so I returned at around 6AM EST and immediately saw a potential trade setting up along my support 1 line (yellow line – 1.2967). Similar to the call option I had been considering at the pivot point hours earlier, I was waiting for a touch of the level, followed by a rejection of 1.2967 and a close above – with a call option taken on a subsequent touch of the level on the following candle. That’s essentially a “rule” that I’ve found to be a very reliable signal for me. It might limit one’s trades to an extent and require oneself to exercise a lot of patience, but I’ve found that the success rate is reasonably higher that way as opposed to simply taking trades on the touch of a level only. I like to wait for some degree of confirmation because sometimes price simply blows right through a S/R level.
Fast forward another hour-and-a-half, and I was still sitting on a tradeless day. There had been several potential trades that had just never set up exactly to my liking. Nonetheless, I found a put option worth taking on the open of the 7:50 candle. There had been an area of minor resistance just before 7AM and the price action was considering another reversal based on the pinbar that had formed on the 7:45 candle. Adding on to that, I had 1.3000, a major psychological price level, working in my favor just as I did in yesterday’s trade. As a result I had a high-probability set-up, so I took a put option on the open of the following candle and had a 12-pip winner at the end of the 8:00 expiry.
Price retraced back up with relatively strong momentum thereafter, but I began eyeing the pivot level as another potential trade opportunity (1.30138). Price had also congested around the pivot level from 4:30-5:00 so once again I had more than one factor working in my favor for that trade. Price finally got up to 1.30138 on the 8:30 candle. But again, I didn’t take it immediately on the touch of the level. I waited for price to touch, reject, close, and touch again on the following candle. Therefore I took the put option at 1.30138, which turned into a beautiful 13-pip winner.
The 1.29834 price level would have been an area for potential call options based on the line of support that was forming there. But I didn’t take any as price just seemed to have more of a downward bias at the moment. Instead, I was eyeing 1.2967 (support 1) for call option consideration. There was also support found in that vicinity based on price nearly reaching that area at around 6AM. Once price finally touched 1.2967, momentum was strongly downward given the 16-pip range on the 9:55 candle alone. But it was followed by a rejection, close above, and subsequent touch of 1.2967 on the 10:00 candle so I hopped on the call option. The trade actually went against me for the majority of the time. But in the final five minutes before expiry it made a final push back above my entry (eight pips) before it finally settled as nearly a 2-pip winner.
Needless to say, by this point I was dead tired considering I had been watching the market live for around eight hours so I stopped trading at this point. But having a 3/3 ITM day was certainly a nice way to end the week.