BTC Miner Reserves Surge, Raising Concerns. Price Drop Soon?
BTC/USD Faces Major Hurdle. Is the Bullish Pressure Enough?
Bitcoin miners are hoarding coins like squirrels before winter! According to CryptoQuant, miner reserves on over-the-counter (OTC) desks have skyrocketed to almost 368,000 BTC, worth a whopping $22 billion. This is a 70% surge in reserves over the past three months and it marks the highest level since June 2022.
Historically, when miners start stockpiling Bitcoin, it’s not a good sign and it often means a price drop is on the horizon. Back in May 2018, when miner reserves topped 400,000 BTC, the price plummeted by 63% within months. A similar story played out in November 2021, with Bitcoin falling 45% after miner reserves hit an all-time high (500,000 BTC).
This accumulation on OTC desks by miners is similar to exchange inflows: just as traders, investors, and whales send their coins to exchanges, miners send them to OTC venues. The intent is usually to sell in both cases. Miners typically use OTC desks to sell Bitcoin, as these platforms offer higher liquidity and better execution, minimizing the impact on the market price (by selling off-exchange, they can cash out without tanking the price).
Meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw nearly $65 million in net inflows on Thursday, continuing a positive streak. BlackRock’s IBIT led the way with $75 million in inflows, while Grayscale’s GBTC, the second-largest spot Bitcoin ETF, saw $28 million in outflows. On the Ethereum side, Ether ETFs experienced modest outflows, with the Grayscale Ethereum Trust seeing nearly $20 million exit the fund. It looks like spot ETH ETFs are underperforming at the moment but that can change in an instant.
Chart Analysis – BTC/USD
After Red Monday, Bitcoin made a significant recovery but hit a ceiling at the 50-day Moving Average and dropped lower to the support at $57,000. Now it is trading again right at the 50 MA and a break would mean that the market is erasing the bad taste of the Red Monday drop.
If the break happens, it will send the price right into the resistance at $63,600, which is not a major hurdle but it is very close to the upper side of the descending channel. There, a more important battle will take place because as we’ve seen many times before, the descending channel managed to keep Bitcoin inside it for a few months now.
The RSI is currently neutral and the price itself looks tame but let’s not forget that later today, Fed Chair Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole Symposium and he is expected to touch on the subject of rate cuts. If that happens, the US Dollar will surely be affected, which will in turn affect BTC/USD.
