ETF Outflows Cast Shadow on Bitcoin’s $100K Challenge
Bitcoin Bulls Eye $100K as Market Tests Critical Levels
After reaching an All-Time High (ATH) in late 2024, Bitcoin has started to consolidate below $100K and printed the first lower high in a long time. On December 20 and December 23, it touched the 50-day Moving Average from above and moved higher to touch $99,800. However, both touches resulted in a bounce at this resistance, solidifying $99,800 as an important level.
The move lower that resulted stopped exactly at $90,700 and it looks like Bitcoin is respecting the previous highs and lows almost to the T (both $99,800 and $90,700 were a key peak and trough). After touching support, it’s been smooth sailing for BTC bulls as all the trading days of 2025 thus far have closed higher than they started.
Despite a good start of the year for Bitcoin, Blackrock’s iShares ETF (IBIT) registered the biggest net outflow since its inception in January 2024: more than $332 million bled out on Thursday. The previous record was registered on Christmas Eve when more than $188 million bled out.
This poor performance comes after a series of days with net inflows that coincided with the early and mid-December Bitcoin rally. It may be just a case of portfolio adjustment by institutional investors, which is a normal occurrence at the end/start of the year.
Chart Analysis – BTC/USD
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is changing hands at $96,120 and is struggling to break the 50-day Moving Average from below. Lately, we saw two bounces at resistance and two at support, so it’s pretty clear that the market opinion is divided and Bitcoin is currently range-bound.
That being said, the latest impulse is bullish after the almost perfect bounce at $90,700. If this bullish impulse takes the price above the 50-day MA, more buyers will likely come in, probably taking BTC/USD into the resistance at $99,800 and possibly above $100K for the first time in 2025.
As an alternative scenario, if the bulls fail to break the 50-day Moving Average, we may see an extended period of drifting prices, without a clear direction. It is also possible that the market needs a deeper correction, considering the huge distance it traveled north without a proper retracement.
