Profit Binary

Greetings, fellow traders. My name is Jeremy. I have been trading for a couple of years and about midway through last year, I discovered binary options. The probability of winning a binary options trade is a minimum of 50% since there are only 2 possible results with equal probability. As a full-time trader, I have been in search of a good binary options signal provider that will give me time to trade forex full-time and also let me get my foot in the door with BO’s as well.

About 2 months ago, I began searching for signal providers and have come across several. Unfortunately, as new as binary options are in the retail world, signal providers for those instruments are even more new and there are very few reviews available out there.

Fortunately, I have managed to follow one such signal provider for the past month and I have the results.

The company is Profit Binary, as in Profitbinary.com.

Initial Review

When I first got to the site, I noticed it looked like every other signal service site. It promises giant returns, makes lots of guarantees, and says you can make over $4,000 on an investment of $100 in the next 40 days. All you need to do is send them your hard earned money for this one-way ticket to easy street. This always sends red flags up in my head, but I also know that every signal service is the same. They have to promote and they need to get you excited about making money if they are going to get your business. Binary options signals providers are no different.

So, Profit Binary.

This company has a free 7-day trial. After that, it is $199 per month, which is double what most signal providers are charging.

Still, they claim 3-5 signals daily, guarantee 120% profit every 10 trades, and if you are not profitable during one month, they will provide you another month of signals for free. That sounds pretty good to me, except if they are not profitable in an entire month, I really don’t want their service, right? Right.

Profit Binary’s signals are provided late night/early morning before market open and all of their signals have an end of the day expiration. For us full-time traders, that’s perfect because we can set it and forget it. At the end of the day, we can win or we can lose, and it takes almost no time to deal with.

Looking back at the site’s signal history (all of their previous signals are available to review), it seems like 3-5 signals daily actually translates to 2-3 , sometimes none, and rarely 4 signals each the day. Not quite the massive amount of winning signals they claimed before. A bit disappointing, but if the signals win regularly, then it is still more than worth the price tag.

After looking at many of their previous calls, it seems that all of them are for stock BO’s only. These include: McDonald’s, Goldman Sachs, Apple, Intel, Nike, IBM, Coca Cola, Disney and Google as well as a few others. No FX , no futures, no indices. That will limit your selection of binary options providers considerably, but most of those stocks can be found on a small handful of sites.

The signals are given in a clear format: what to trade, the direction and the price that entry point is valid. For example, the signal may look something like this:

What this means is that in the morning of the signal day, you will want to make a Put (sell/down) trade on McDonald’s (The ticker is MCD) with a price of 93.00 or higher. You will use 4 units (if you normally trade with $10, then this trade is for $40). If MCD opens at 93.01, the signal is valid. If MCD opens at 92.99, the signal isn’t any good anymore. Same goes for IBM and Google, except the Google is a Call/Buy signal where you need to get in at $742.00 or less.

Bottom line- It sounds good, but not as good as they are making it out. Hopefully the signals win enough to make the service worth it.

The Signals

Now when it comes to a signal provider, there are 3 things that matter more than anything: Cost, Success rate, and validity. The cost has been discussed, but aside from success rate, validity is also important. If a company sends out winning trades, but you don’t get them while they are still valid, then they may as well have never come. With Profit Binary, I don’t see this as a problem since they send signals out before the market opens.

So here is the one-month signal history and results of Profit Binary:

­

Date	Asset	Call/Put	Called Entry	Expiry	Open	Result
12/18/2012	GOOG	Put	>717.00	721.07	719.00	loss
12/18/2012	DIS	Call	<49.5	50.22	49.45	win
12/19/2012	GOOG	Put	>717.00	720.11	720.99	invalid
12/19/2012	GS	Put	>126.90	127.25	128.37	win
12/20/2012	MCD	Put	>89.50	90.40	89.70	loss
12/20/2012	JPM	Call	<43.60	44.53	43.66	invalid
12/21/2012	MCD	Put	>89.50	90.18	89.23	invalid
12/21/2012	AAPL	Call	<526.00	519.33	512.21	win
12/27/2012	FB	Put	>26.50	26.05	26.55	win
12/27/2012	GS	Call	<127.30	126.67	127.40	invalid
12/28/2012	INTC	Put	>20.35	20.23	20.38	win
12/28/2012	GOOG	Call	<705.00	700.01	702.00	loss
12/31/2012	GOOG	Call	<706.00	707.38	701.00	win
12/31/2012	LVS	Call	<45.00	46.16	44.75	win
12/31/2012	DIS	Put	>49.00	49.79	48.86	invalid
1/2/2013	FB	Put	>26.50	28.00	27.37	loss
1/2/2013	GOOG	Call	<712.00	723.25	718.00	invalid
1/3/2013	FB	Put	>27.65	27.77	27.95	win
1/3/2013	DIS	Call	<51.25	51.21	51.05	win
1/4/2013	KO	Put	>37.45	37.66	37.63	loss
1/4/2013	FB	Call	<27.95	28.76	27.97	win
1/7/2013	KO	Put	>37.45	37.29	37.55	win
1/7/2013	IBM	Call	<195.25	193.20	193.29	loss
1/8/2013	IBM	Call	<194.75	192.82	192.85	loss
1/8/2013	AAPL	Call	<526.00	525.31	529.35	invalid
1/9/2013	GS	Put	>132.00	134.32	133.29	loss
1/9/2013	IBM	Call	<194.75	191.70	192.94	loss
1/9/2013	AAPL	Call	<528.00	517.10	522.42	loss
1/10/2013	GS	Put	>133.6	137.37	135.07	loss
1/10/2013	IBM	Call	<193.75	192.88	192.65	win
1/10/2013	AAPL	Call	<521.00	523.51	528.55	invalid
1/10/2013	NKE	Call	<52.6	52.55	52.63	invalid
1/11/2013	GS	Put	>136.00	137.13	137.02	loss
1/11/2013	AAPL	Call	<530.00	521.30	521.00	loss
1/11/2013	NKE	Call	<52.75	53.10	52.66	win
1/14/2013	AAPL	Call	<525.00	502.68	501.75	loss
1/14/2013	GS	Put	>136.00	137.19	136.13	win
1/15/2013	MSFT	Put	>26.75	27.81	26.83	loss
1/15/2013	AAPL	Call	<510.00	485.92	498.30	loss
1/16/2013	GS	Put	>134.00	141.09	138.94	loss
1/16/2013	INTC	Put	>21.75	22.11	21.91	loss
1/16/2013	AAPL	Call	<491.00	506.09	494.64	invalid
1/17/2013	GS	Put	>139.00	141.01	140.89	loss
1/17/2013	INTC	Put	>21.95	22.68	22.12	loss
1/17/2013	LVS	Call	<52.05	51.88	51.99	loss
1/18/2013	GS	Put	>140.25	144.45	141.35	loss
1/18/2013	INTC	Put	>22.35	21.25	21.36	invalid
1/18/2013	MCD	Put	>91.25	92.26	92.07	loss
1/18/2013	LVS	Call	<52.05	52.22	52.61	invalid

For those who aren’t great at math, this is a 38% win ratio. To say I was sorely disappointed is an understatement. Many of the trades gapped up or down, invalidating the signals. This is not a problem with the signal provider, but it left many signals unavailable to me. What is a problem is that, somehow, with a base win chance of 50%, the signal service couldn’t manage to break even.

If that wasn’t bad enough, their unit system is a problem. I first thought this was how strong they gauged the signal: more lots means a higher percentage chance of winning. Unfortunately, this was a sad excuse for a money-management strategy instead. Most times the signals lost on one day, Profit Binary would post the same signal the next day with +1 unit to help compensate for the loss. I have seen these guys lose on the same stock 5 times in a row before! Using their recommended lot sizes would have led to staggering losses. Fortunately I did not use them and as such, did not include them.

And if that is not enough, 3-4 of the signals that came in did not come in until after 10:00 a.m. the morning they were supposed to be valid. I was unable to take these trades as I did not catch them in time, their wins/losses were still included here because when I checked, the signals were still valid when the email came in.

Bottom Line: I cannot in good conscience recommend this service to anyone. While I am sure they are working hard to provide a good service, and while I absolutely hate to trash anyone’s company or effort, this service has not proved itself useful in any way. It’s a great concept with extremely poor execution. If anyone else has any experience with this service then feel free to input below.